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Politics : Liberalism: Do You Agree We've Had Enough of It?
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To: TideGlider who wrote (63697)4/25/2009 11:41:50 AM
From: Kenneth E. Phillipps  Read Replies (2) of 224749
 
Toomey Has Huge Lead over Specter in Pennsylvania Permalink
First one poll then another poll have shown Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) trailing former congressman Pat Toomey by double-digit margins. The Rasmussen poll published yesterday puts Toomey ahead 51% to 30%.

Specter's real problem was the Democratic presidential primary in 2008. With the battle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama still raging last April, hundreds of thousands of moderate Republicans in Pennsylvania switched registration to vote in the Democratic primary. Most of these people normally voted for Specter. Now they are officially Democrats. With a big primary looming on the Democratic side in 2010, probably most of them will remain Democrats to vote in the Democratic primary. Thus the center of gravity of what is left of the Pennsylvania Republican Party has moved far to the right--towards Toomey and away from Specter. Under far less favorable circumstances, Toomey came within 1.7% of beating Specter in the 2004 senatorial primary. Now with the wind at his back and Specter unpopular with the right wing of the Republican Party for his occasional roll call votes with the Democrats, Toomey has an excellent chance of winning the nomination. Unfortunately, he has almost no chance of winning the general election against any of the numerous Democrats trying for their party's nomination. He is simply far too conservative for a state Obama carried by 11 points. Thus a Toomey win in the primary means that Pennsylvania will very likely flip and give the Democrats their 60th seat in the Senate (assuming Franken is seated by January 2010).

electoral-vote.com
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