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Politics : View from the Center and Left
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To: Dale Baker who wrote (109859)4/26/2009 6:21:07 PM
From: cosmicforce  Read Replies (1) of 541990
 
Not to put too fine a point on the physical metaphor, what we perceive as centrifugal force (i.e., something flying away) is actually a tendency for things to show linear momentum. It is a velocity term with mass. So the bigger something is (both metaphorically and physically) the more likely it is likely to keep moving in the same direction unabated. With circular motions and curves we see this as a detachment, but it really a tangential course of previous motion.

This latest story of the cruise ship defending against pirate is just such a momentum term with a new acceleration term driven by the previous success of the pirates. In their acts of escalation, which is a change from the previous, and apparently tolerable status quo, we will start seeing groups of ships routinely convoying in and out of the Gulf of Arden and along the East African coast. This will probably occur in the next 18 to 24 months and the pirates will initially be increasing their levels of attack.

But, because the pirates are going to be increasingly challenged - their response will initially be to push back until it becomes tactically impossible to attack convoys shining searchlights and radar across the water. Deep-pocketed shipping will be employing low cost counter forces (hopefully not Israelis and Blackwater, but probably someone like them, maybe headquartered in Dubai or Saudi Arabia) and these guys will pushing back too hard for the pirates to take and mistakes will be made. It'd be better if the world navies and coast guards do this, but it will probably be private at least initially.

The pirates will return to picking off unescorted boats and pleasure boats.
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