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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room
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To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (120140)4/27/2009 11:35:59 AM
From: profile_14  Read Replies (2) of 206272
 
It is based on the anticipation of a trough in EPS in the next 9 months. If anything changes, look out below. How E&Ps are going to print good numbers with high costs (not falling as fast as the commodity) and $3 natural gas is interesting. Shut ins are not occurring fast enough and the massive 36% inventory surplus above the average does not bode well. Some switching to gas from on efficient plants has occurred, but prices need to drop further for there to be more of it. August 2002 lows of $2.66 look feasible. I will be long UNG at 12.70 by May expiry. I see greater upside on the commodity here than on the equities, all of which I think are ahead of themselves.
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