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Politics : View from the Center and Left

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To: TimF who wrote (110696)5/5/2009 6:59:35 PM
From: greenspirit  Read Replies (1) of 541478
 
Krugman has been wrong so often about the direction of the economy, it's a wonder anyone takes him seriously. The problem with economists like Krugman is they *do* have a long track record of analysis. And if you've been paying attention, it's a horrible one.

A good analogy would be mutual fund managers. Many of them have gone to the best business schools in the country, studied the market for years, but few of them beat the performance of index funds. So, it's a good idea to check their past record before investing in their advice.

There's a good book on this subject called "The wisdom of Teams'. Often, the average of everyone, is a better predictor than experts or complete knuckleheads.
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