I continue to favor 2007 as THE secular top, for reasons spelled out many times before. The credit bubble clearly did NOT blow in 2000. Financial stocks, the epicenter of the Great Experiment, made substantially higher peaks all the way into 2007.
Asset pricing, whether it is stocks, bonds, commodities, or real estate, is all a reflection of the credit market conditions. It took me many years of studying stocks and the credit markets to fully grasp that. Those clearly topped in 2007, so I favor that as the secular top. Clearly, the break from the speculative fervor of 2000 means that we are well into correcting excesses in some places. But 2007 should be considered the top, IMO.
However, one wouldn't be too far off the mark with your count, at least not for the next few years.
BC |
