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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks

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To: Roebear who wrote (78213)	5/8/2009 12:35:25 PM
From: JimisJim	Read Replies (1) of 108614

Roe, chart patterns: I'm not as adept at TA as most around here, but I'm learning... while I'm hiding out here behind our OTC booth trying to look busy, I read a post on iV where the guy also went back and pulled a long term chart on POG that makes him quite bullish here... what's interesting to me is that he sees a bullish pattern long term but not the same one you see. I suppose it matters on what exact time frame one uses -- which seems to be a key to TA in general and something I'm still trying to learn... choosing the right time frame and other parameters so that patterns become clearer. Regardless, both patterns observed by you and this guy seem to reach the same-ish conclusion... posted by couplover @ iV: "I also look at a multi year chart charting the entire Bull from its beginning and I see bears no where in sight. I do see a huge H&S bottoming pattern that took over a year to form with $740 or so as the bottom. A breach below that and yes the bears will have really taken hold. Gold is dancing on the neckline now and a break above with another attempt at $1000 may lead to a major upleg. The kind of rise we have not seen since early 2007 when the smaller H&S bottom was bettered and POG ran sideways all summer until busting out hard to the north. I can not annotate the Kitco chart but look at the Jan- Jul 2007 action, once the previous May 2006 peak was taken out POG was off to the races. If the patterns hold true then the huge H&S pattern here should have monumental effects on POG if it gets bettered. This chart deals in monthly close prices on London Fix. So it is fairly smoothed out. kitco.com The wildcard in all this for me is the LEH collapse and the subsequent July 2008 collapse of from world wide de-leveraging and selling of everything. It makes me wonder about the validity of the H&S bottom, especially its size. We saw POG get a major shave and a haircut going from above $900 to around $740 and I wonder if that was not overdone." Jim

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