I don't think these "glitches" are microscopic at all. The charts I posted represent broad market indexes (i.e., the NASI and the put/call). And, I posted weekly charts, which tend to screen out "noise" fairly well. Note that these weekly charts are telling the same story as the daily charts; that frequently does not happen.
The picture is rarely unanimous, however, and now is no exception. For example, the estimates of volatility such as the VIX, VXN, and QQV are still in abnormally high territory. True, these indicators do not really directly measure equity volatilities. The point is that a lot of the planets are aligned, but not all of them.
For me, there are enough aligned for me to say that there is a very high probability of a reversal here. Personally, I don't really much care which way the market goes. If my long stops trigger, then I'll be in cash and will shift more short. If not, then that's okay too. If the market rallies like crazy, my short stops will trigger, and the trailing stops on the long will not, so that's equally okay by me.
WS |
