i have to admit, if pit bosses, and GS want to take Oil to the $70 area they will no matter what the fundamental picture really is.
This is my point about this overall market, we are now in an era where HFunds run the show, and we all know I was very bearish on banks and financials from the top back in 2007. That does ot change the fact the market allowed those stocks to get where they were and then took them to where they should have been.
Now you look at Oil and its relation to the OSX. I have been a shortterm trader that all, I never buy or short and hold for more then maybe 6 months and thats only if I like the trade but my timing may be off. Last Spring when Crude took off it really shocked the hell out of me how GS, MS, BSC, and Barclays controlled the oil move. They took that contract from 52 in Jan of 2007 all the way to 147 in July of 2008. The move from March to July was with the most bearish fundamental;s I have ever seen in the patch.
It really taught me a very valuable lesson, that the market is run by a few and fundamentals no longer play any significant role as they did back in the late 90's through 2003. That 2003 was the changing point.
I bring this up because if you look at the current rally in the market and in particular the move off the lows. We have had the sector that look us to the lows take us back to a new Bull Market. Can this happen? The weakest sector from the top in June 2007 has been the financials. Very much like the Internets back in 2000, but what has been incredible is how now after a 40% rally, the largest and most powerful since 1932, without a 5% correction, so many people believe we on verge of new Bull market?
(con't next post) |
