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Strategies & Market Trends : Investor sentiment surveys - a technical indicator
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To: Q. who wrote (119)10/27/1997 6:19:00 PM
From: Q.  Read Replies (1) of 167
 
The present plunge was not anticipated by a high level of bullishness in the surveys.

I have to go back to August to find a particularly high level, and that did precede a relatively small correction. It then hit about 61%, when you average the 4 surveys in Barrons. Lately it has been mostly below 50%, which is not especially euphoric.

In looking ahead, I think that the surveys might be a little better at picking a bottom than a top. The April 1997 bottom came when bullishness fell to 33%, from a peak of 61%, when averaged over the 4 surveys. It might never get that low this time, of course, so I would say that a sentiment in the mid 30's might be a sufficient but not necessary condition for identifying the bottom.
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