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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (97359)	5/10/2009 9:07:52 PM
From: rich evans	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) of 116555

The household survey went positive for the first time in a long time today as to the labor market. Early sign? Both the payroll and household surveys are needed for a complete picture of the labor market. The payroll survey provides a highly reliable gauge of monthly change in nonfarm payroll employment. The household survey provides a broader picture of employment including agriculture and the self employed. Latest trends in payroll and household survey employment S easonally adjusted, numbers in thousands 1 Payroll survey estimates for March and April 2009 are preliminary and subject to revision. 2 The effects of population control revisions in January 2000 and January of 2003-09 have been smoothed out in the historical household survey employment estimates used here; thus, the changes shown above will differ from those calculated using the official estimates in the Employment Situation and in the public database available on the BLS w ebsite. See Appendix for further explanation. 3 This is a research series created from household survey employment to be more similar in concept and definition to payroll survey employment. Household survey employment is adjusted by subtracting agriculture and related employment, nonagricultural self employed, unpaid family and private household workers, and workers absent without pay from their jobs, and then adding nonagricultural wage and salary multiple jobholders. The effects of population c ontrol revisions also have been smoothed out in the historical data in this series. 4 The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has designated December 2007 as the most recent business cycle peak. NBER has not yet determined an endpoint for the recession that began in December 2007. Reference period Payroll survey employment 1 Household survey employment 2 Adjusted household survey employment 3 Over-the-month change March-April 2009 -539 120 This is the number 80 This is the adjusted humber Over-the-year change April 2008-2009 -5,240 -4,866 -4,314 Since the business cycle peak 4 December 2007-April 2009 -5,738 -4,321 -3,659

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