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Technology Stocks : Excel Communications

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To: Joe Jackson who wrote (2301)	10/27/1997 6:42:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (1) of 2806

Excel got hit along with most other stocks today. I view this as a buying opportunity. We may see another couple of days of downside but I expect a key reversal by the end of the week and to be higher than the close today by the close next Monday. That may end up being wishful thinking, but we'll see. A lot of the conern in the markets is due to a drop in markets in Hong Kong and other Asian countries due to a monetary "crisis". One of the leading groups to the downside has been the semiconductor equipment and semi IC companies. The thought is that these problems will greatly effect the business prospects in these sectors since a large amount of electronics manufacture occurs in Asia. However, these markets comprise only about 7% of overall US foregn trade. I though it would be interesting to report on a conference call I took part in today: IPEC is an IC process equipment company with about 20% of their business in Asian countries, including hard-hit Taiwan and Korean markets. IPEC's business is up sharply. They just got back from visits to customers last week. They said that they see stronger than expected orders and backlog coming from these countries and SEE NO EFFECT from the current media trumpeted crisis. Another "big issue"- Intel delaying their planned Texas FAB for flash production was said to not have a material negative effect on business. In fact, Intel also announced that they were converting an Israeli fab to microprocessor production and that would take increased investment that would largely off-set the delay of the Texas fab. While the media has touted that we are in the midst of a crisis, the reality is that business is very good and no upset has occured at most companies. I think the current situation presents a great opportunity to profit by buying stocks while the media is "profiting" from blowing the problem way out of proportion. Excel could see more downward pressure if the market continues it's sell-off. This is a short-term event IMO.

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