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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: koan who wrote (202482)5/15/2009 4:00:42 PM
From: Skeeter BugRead Replies (3) of 306849
 
>>I am in real estate. One of the largest problems which has me very puzzled is that it has become much harder to get loans for qualified Buyers.<<

the problem is the loan market is now rational. it doesn't matter how qualified the buyer is if the asset they want to buy is falling 20-30% per year and they can't come up with *at least* 20% down. they shouldn't get that loan - even if it means your personal profits are hurt.

>>It would be in the best interest of the country, IMO, if government were to ensure qualified borrows could buy.<<

no, it wouldn't. extending the bubble and taking on more bad debt in a vain attempt to prop up an unsustainable bubble will yield many very bad consequences.

>>Mortgage insurance is one of the largest problems and if the government were to do guarantee the loans it would be a safe and easy way to help the problem.<<

the tax payer doesn't exist to help you generate commissions. i don't want to guarantee inflated assets. that's stupid.

>>The banks are being very difficult as they got themselves into so much trouble. Lots of extra fees. The government could safely and greatly help, but does not seem to understand the problem?<<

the banks understand it perfectly well - it is stupid to lend against a collapsing asset. that's why they aren't lending unless the scenario makes sense.

>>I remain puzzled by the lack of understanding on how government could safely assist this problem (like they did in insuring bank deposits FDIC).<<

i think you are blinded by your income. what is good for your pocket book is not necessarily good for the economy. look what happened over the last 10 years - great for your pocket book, but very bad for the entire world.

>>Despite all of the above, our market has made a strong turn around because of the low interest rates I guess.<<

uh, define "strong turn around," please. prices are still collapsing.

>>Other areas of the country like Oregon seem to be turning around as well although the demise of our manufacturing sector may spell a doomsday scenario going forward.<<

i own a condo and will sell it this summer. "strong turn around" isn't what i would call the market i'm selling into - and it is one of the better markets.

also, rates and taxes are on the way up. banks know this. they also know what this will do to home prices going forward.

so do i - that's why i'm taking out as much 4.75% money as i can for as long as i can. i plan on buying a 2nd home with that 4.75% money when everyone else is paying 10%+ money - likely at half the current home prices in socal.

that's why banks don't want to lend unless it makes sense - they know they may get wiped out with 20% down when interest rates go up hard (and they will!).
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