Mike: You are thinking about all the right issues, but it will never be easy. Don't assume that, after 20 more years of studying economics, your batting average on your investments will be any better (or worse) than they are today.
Economics is only partially a science. There are some forecasts that can be made with a high degree of certainty, but only because human nature is relatively constant. But it is equally an art, because there are few replicable experiments.
In my posts here many times I have reminded people of things that happened from 1927-1937, because there are a lot of parallels with today, and the possibility of a depression is a lot higher than most people think. But there are a lot of major differences, too, and there is a good argument that the 1930's depression might have turned out to be just a normal recession had the Fed done some things differently.
So what happens to the economy is a mixture of things that might be predictable, because they are the consequence of large forces, and things that are unpredictable, because they are the result of one particular powerful person (e.g., Greenspan) choosing a particular course of action. It ain't easy, but work on the forces first, and take your chances on the stray humans. |
