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Gold/Mining/Energy : Uranium Stocks
URNM 55.97+2.2%Dec 2 4:00 PM EST
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To: Cheeky Kid who wrote (14562)5/16/2009 1:59:49 PM
From: TheSlowLane1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 30193
 
That's about 75% true, at least over the past eight years. There are two years, 2003 and 2005 where buying back in August would have cost you more than where you would have sold in May (that's assuming that you traded at the highs in May and lows in August). In 2008, you could have sold in May and bought back much cheaper in August, only to get crushed in September - November. That said, it seems unlikely that we will have the onset of a global financial crisis during that same period on an annual basis. This is a fairly small sample, but it covers most of the bull market in resources to date. I'm not sure if going back further would add value or subtract it.



The green arrows are for May-Aug periods where the strategy would have worked, the red ones for when it didn't. If you take 2008 out of the mix due to the "specialness" of that year, it reduces the SIMAGA success rate somewhat.
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