Headline: Semiconductors: Weekly Chip Price Survey
Author: M. A. Gumport, CFA 1(212)526-5368/T. Berg -5276, C. Gangi -3754
Rating:
Company: ALSC,AMD,INTC,IDTI,MU
Country: IND CUS
Industry: SEMICO
Today's Date : 10/24/97
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* WEEKLY CHIP PRICING UPDATE: DRAMs DOWN; SRAMs FLAT, PENTIUMS DOWN, K6 UP
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DRAMs STILL UNDER PRESSURE. Price declines have moderated during the past
month, but the steep decline in selected configurations make us quite cautious
short term on memory market trends. In particular, 16 Mbit prices came down
11% for both the 4Mx4 EDO ($4.46) and fast page mode ($4.65) configurations
last week despite stability in other configurations. At the 64 Mbit level,
premium paid for synchronous DRAMs narrowed sharply and all synchronous parts
are now below $30 and more in line with EDO and fast page parts. We remain
optimistic that memory trends will turn much more favorable during the next 6
months, but we are not seeing that yet. We note that the sub-$1,000 PC may
also extend the 16 Mbit cycle.
SRAM SPOT PRICING STABLE. The demand for SRAMs is very fragmented. One of the
more popular SRAM chips, the 32Kx8 SOJ package 15 ns (nanoseconds) SRAM is
priced between $0.80 and $1.20, and the 20 ns chip is priced between $0.60 and
$0.80 at AICE, the spot market exchange.
PENTIUMS: PRICES DECLINE IN ANTICIPATION OF 11/1 PRICE CUTS; K6 233 STRONG.
Pentium prices continue to decline as the 11/1 price cut nears. There was an
uptick, however, at the 166 speed (both MMX and non-MMX) reflecting ongoing
strong interest in low priced PCs. The Pentium Pro line remained virtually
flat (no price cut coming? Not a focus line now). K6-233's PRICE IS OVER 14%
HIGHER THAN A MONTH AGO SUGGESTING STRONG DEMAND/LIMITED SUPPLY AND THAT THE
K6-233 SEEMS TO BE SUCCESSFULLY PRICED AGAINST THE PENTIUM 2 RATHER THAN THE
PENTIUM.
SUMMARY POSITION: We believe an inventory correction is long over and that
heavy exposure to chip stocks continues to make sense. We attribute current
turbulence in chip stocks to the fact the industry is chattering due to the
summer deceleration and a slowdown from the peak year-over-year gains:
Worldwide IC unit volume, -6% in August 1996 is +35% in July 1997, +29% in
August 1997. We believe the industry is now moving towards 20-25% sustainable
growth.
AICE PRICE SURVEY 10/09 -------% CHG VS.-------
10/23 1WK 2WK 1MO
64MBITS Sync 4Mx16 $28.20 -2.8% -2.8% -.-%
Sync 8Mx8 $29.65 -5.9% -5.9% -.-%
Sync 16Mx4 $27.58 -4.1% -8.7% -.-%
4MX16EDO $28.59 0.0% -8.5% -8.5%
8MX8 $24.86 1.0% -2.7% -15.2%
16MX4EDO $27.13 -0.9% -0.9% -2.6%
16MX4 $26.63 -3.1% -3.1% -4.3%
16MBITS Sync 1Mx16 $6.73 0.0% -4.4% -.-%
Sync 2Mx8 $5.64 0.0% -9.4% -.-%
1Mx16 EDO $4.98 0.0% 3.1% 0.0%
1Mx16 $5.14 0.0% 2.2% 0.8%
4Mx4 EDO $4.46 -10.6% -10.6% -14.5%
4Mx4 $4.65 -10.5% -10.5% -11.7%
4MBITS 256Kx16 $2.45 -2.2% 2.6% 14.0%
1Mx4 EDO $1.30 0.0% -7.2% -9.1%
1MX4 $1.41 0.0% -19.9% -19.9%
SIMMS/ --% CHG VS.--- DRAM DRAM --MODULES PRICE SPREADS---
MODULES 10/23 1WK 2WK EQUIV. ACTUAL 10/23 1WK 2WK 1MO.
8x32(32MB) $83.64 0.0% -3.5% $5.02 (4x4) $4.65 8.0% -3.3% 0.2% -1.2%
4x32(16MB) $38.36 -8.3% -8.3% $4.61 (4x4) $4.65 -0.9% -3.3% -3.3% 1.1%
2x32(8MB) $22.44 0.0% -6.4% $1.35 (1x4) $1.41 -4.1% -4.1% -18.0%-15.7%
1x32(4MB) $11.99 0.0% 0.0% $1.44 (1x4) $1.41 2.5% 2.5% -17.9% -9.3%
JAPAN 10/23 -------% CHG VS. ------
16/4 MBIT 1WK 2WK 1MO PRICE STATUS
1Mx16 EDO $4.35 0.0% -7.4% -16.3% Flat
1Mx16 $4.35 0.0% -7.4% -16.3% Flat
4Mx4 EDO $4.35 0.0% -6.5% -16.3% Flat
4Mx4 $4.35 0.0% -6.5% -16.3% Flat
1MX4 $1.30 0.0% 0.0% -18.8% Flat
SPOT LIST --------% CHG VS.--------
PENTIUM SURVEY (AICE)10/23 7/28 1WK 2WKS 1MO.
P2-266 $554 $669 -3.9% -10.1% -14.5%
P2-233 $449 $530 -6.6% -6.6% -14.6%
P6/Pro-200 (256k) $462 $487 -2.7% -2.7% -3.8%
P6/Pro-180 (256K) $168 $407 0.0% -8.3% -15.0%
P55C-233 (MMX) $337 $386 -4.9% -10.1% ---
P55C-200 (MMX) $235 $252 -3.8% -3.8% -5.0%
P55C-166 (MMX) $151 $145 +4.3% +4.3% +13.8%
P54C-200 $164 $125 -5.3% -12.9% +10.1%
P54C-166 $122 $106 +2.6% -2.4% -11.8%
P54C-133 $ 87 $ 95 -9.7% -9.7% -10.7%
K6 (ESC* -small lots)
K6-233 $388 $290 ----% +7.2% +14.4%
K6-200 $185 $189 ----% -5.6% -12.3%
Disclosure Legend: A-Lehman Brothers Inc. managed or co-managed within the
past three years a public offering of securities for this company. B-An
employee of Lehman Brothers Inc. is a director of this company. C-Lehman
Brothers Inc. makes a market in the securities of this company. G-The Lehman
Brothers analyst who covers this company also has position in its securities.] |
