I'm still bullish intermediate term, meaning that 666 won't
be taken out, and inverse H&S on the spoos will be carved.
The target is low 800-s.
The currency crisis similar to smaller nations is unlikely
in USA, even though the buck may see a new low later this year,
maybe even this Summer. Nobody wants it at this time, the
globe is in a recession. There can be sharp moves on the
buck, though. If anything, gold should indicate a new low
for the dollar in advance, by breaking out above 1000 with
gusto. I still expect the buck to drop, but, realistically,
it should not drop below high 60-s this year, which is
still down a great deal lower from where we are now.
The real Black Swan and derivative meltdown to watch for?
Well, the rates skying, and a ton of swaps out there (400
Trillion notional) blowing up. While the notional amounts
for derivatives have declined somewhat due to this crisis,
we are still at the very top of that huge mountain! Nix
the inverse H&S if that happens. We are going much lower then.
The Fed's huge injections have fixed the derivative pyramid,
for now. |
