I am reading the Seth Klarman interview here:
oid.com
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I reiterate: I remain confused as to how he actually selects his picks--- they make little sense to me based on what I understand what he says his methodology is. (There's a margin of safety with something like his THRX?) And worse, based on what I see as I have followed him over the years, his results from the picks he shows don't seem to me to justify his alleged good record. Of course, like most pros he keeps hidden what he holds right now, what he's now buying, now selling, and of any dollar gain/loss on an individual stock- what proportion of the overall portfolio that would be. Also, several of his picks are so obscure as to be hard to find where/how or what they trade at.
Anyway, I've followed him into the lp's of Atlas, and that has been a disaster for him and me. I'm trying now again with a buy this week of a few shares of [t]FACT[/t] (<span style='font-size:11px'>LAST</span>: 9.31<span style='font-size:11px'> 5/22/2009 4:33:30 PM</span>) . Another company with no earnings but with cash exceeding stock price. I am holding several like that, and mostly these stocks are declining as the companies burn through cash with no or little revenues or profits.
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Ever since I read Thomas Phelps' "100to1 in the Stock Market", I've always wondered if I'd ever get a 100 bagger in my lifetime. I suppose I could say, yes, and Mr. Klarman is responsible for that. Somewhere in the 1980's I guess, for about $2-$3 at a used bookstore, I bought and am still holding a copy of his book "Margin of Safety". Unfortunately, as I do with all my investing books, I highlighted the passages I believe relevant, so I'm guessing the book is "only" worth 1/2 of the $700 it might still be selling for in pristine condition.
businessweek.com
Possibly not worth anywhere near $700 nowadays with declines in most things, but at least I can say I sorta had my chance at cashing in a hundred bagger. lol. |
