Hefner’s recollection of the governmental hearings where he went toe-to-toe with big oil is fascinating. Unfortunately, the government believed Exxon instead of Hefner.
Exxon’s testimony was that the US had a total of 300 Tcf of natural gas resources. Hefner’s estimation at the time was for US natural gas reserves to be on the order of 1,500-2,000 Tcf (his current estimate is 3,000 Tcf). History has since vindicated Mr. Hefner as now most experts estimate remaining natural gas resources at 1,500-2,000 Tcf. Governmental policies based on big oil’s faulty natural gas estimates led to huge increases in US coal and oil consumption and resulted in the “three intolerables” we face today: economic contraction, environmental degradation (including some 15-20 billion tons of CO2 from coal plant additions since 1978 that are now in our atmosphere that otherwise would not have been there!), and geopolitical and geostrategic tensions. How ironic (and tragic) that Oklahoma, the state in which Hefner and Boone Pickens call home, went from generating 95% of its electricity from natural gas to 50% from coal.
The “real inconvenient truth,” Hefner says, is that government subsidies are impeding the adoption of abundant, cleaner and cheaper natural gas by extending the life of oil and coal well beyond what otherwise would have been their natural rates of decline. If government policy instead allowed the full external costs of coal and oil (military costs to secure supply, health care costs due to toxic emissions, environmental costs, efficiency costs, etc.) to bleed through to the consumer, the superior energy solutions of natural gas, wind, and solar would come to the fore. Natural gas would then attain its destiny as the “go-to” fuel of choice and accelerate the decline of coal and oil consumption while significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Going forward, with recent production and reserve estimates coming from the Barnett, Haynesville, Marcellus shale formations, among others, have vindicated Mr. Hefner’s testimony of decades ago. His contention was and is that “peak oil” does NOT mean “peak natural gas” and he has been proven correct - US and world natural gas supplies are abundant and can be relied upon by policymakers for 100 years. The government should recognize that natural gas is the only domestic fuel that can be scaled-up over the next decade in order to achieve significant reductions in the use of coal and foreign oil as well as significantly reducing CO2 and particulate emissions. Hefner presents energy policies to reestablish the industrial might of America by becoming the world leader in CNG vehicles and CNG refueling capabilities
Hefner refers to several instances where the power of words should not be underestimated. He urges the media and policymakers to be mindful of the nuances. For instance:
* What big oil refers to as “unconventional natural gas” should really be termed “conventional”. It is a critical matter of perception as “unconventional” conveys to policymakers that this natural gas is somehow uncertain and limited when in fact, the Haynesville shale (which big oil refers to as unconventional) could well become one of the most prolific natural gas fields in the world and hold some 2-300 Tcf of recoverable natural gas! Or, as much as the Exxon’s early 1980’s estimate of total US natural gas reserves.
* The term “fossil fuels” lumps coal, oil, and natural gas together. Hefner suggests policymakers and journalists refrain from using the term “fossil fuels” because it mixes the historical big energy problems (coal and oil) together with the 21st century solution (natural gas). Each fuel should instead be discussed on its own merits. Also, it is important to note that while coal and oil are definitely fossil fuels, Hefner’s argument that natural gas was also created by non-biological origins is a strong one.
seekingalpha.com |
