Spoos are just flat for the year. We'll see. In the beginning
of the year we were scared that 4 largest banks will go BK,
taking the whole financial system along for the ride. That
culminated in March.
Overall, it's a little early for the top, I think, given
the scale of prior destruction, but I agree with you, the
bulls had quite a ride already. The model seems to
give 10% up from here and July as a possible top. What I
don't like for the bearish case is that I see too many bears
who want to short this just cause we had a large rally,
a bear rally, or so they tell us. Given that they do want
to sell it, and all they could achieve was a flat month,
I think the path of least resistance is still higher. These
bears need to be run over before the market can roll over.
That, and a stream of mildly positive economic news plus
a quiet credit market. -g-
Here is an old credit bubble chart reminder. FWIW, 2009 looks
to be good, while 2010-11 will be ugly. -g-
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