Forget about the low ....what about the intraday high? Will it be above at or below todays close?BTW I'm talking $23.875.If iom gets to 21 think of some of the other values that might also be out there. These kinds of markets often see violent rallies up, either intraday or for an up close. People are very scared.......they want something to feel good about because the thought of a real Bear market which a lot of people in the business have never really seen, is simply unimagineable(sp?)....they are going to start saying..."holy shit!!! INTC at 65 IBM at 75 CPQ at 55 and yes maybe IOM at 20.....it time to buy again !!!!"...... because that notion will give them some comfort...."the fundamentals are still good" they'll say, And jump in to buy........We will close down tommorow but I wouldn't be surprised to see an intraday rally. What will be important is the volume, both on the initial decline and on the anticipated rally. At some point people will say "OK so now we discounted next zero in Asian sales into these stocks, sooooooo, with a still fundamentally good and growing economy here in the States there's got to be value." I AM NOT saying this line of reasoning is correct, I'm just presuming the rationale.
It may turn out to be right and it might not. I feel, unfortunately, that IF, and this is A BIG IF, this drastic loss of wealth continues in the Far East AND begins to spread, as we saw today in Latin America........ the words "Global Economic Slowdown (that means resession(sp?) of 1998/99) become more probable. IOM, should my doom and gloom theory turn out to be correct, will probably be affected by it. Some stocks go up even during a recession but most do not.
I fear we are witnessing the birth of a cyclical and maybe even a secular bear market. Millions of people have made a lot of money off the economy in the last 5 or 6 years , now its time to pay the economy back.
I may be overly bearish tonight long term, but as far as the short term goes....this thing is not going straight down all day 2 days in a row ,IMHO, there should at least be some sort of midday rally(I hope) But long term, if this turns into a worldwide financial crisis, I think the econmy and the market in general, NOT iom specifically, but possibly, is headed towards the shitter.....:(
Frank
PS
AT 11:45 Eastern Time
HK down 1621.80 -15.45 %
Nikkei down 787.01 16,251.35 -4.62%
...and of course S & P futures are down limit 15. |
