Tantalum amply supplied now, future shortages likely - Rittenhouse
minormetals.com
Istanbul, 29 April 2009 - The global tantalum market will be amply supplied this year, as slumping demand has tracked a fall in availability, but future supply shortages lie around the corner, industry expert David Henderson, president of minerals specalists Rittenhouse International said on Wednesday.
"There are sufficient resources and stocks available through to the end of the year, but if demand recovers in the medium-term there could be a shortage," Henderson said at the MMTA’s Minor Metals Conference, organised by Metal Events, here.
Primary tantalite (Ta2O5) production last year is estimated at 3.695 million tonnes, with major suppliers Africa and Australia producing 1.3 and 1.2 million tonnes respectively. When supply from secondary producers and scrap recovery is added, total global availability of primary tantalite last year reached 5.33 million pounds, Henderson said.
In primary tantalite, the ore is converted into metallic carbide, powder and oxide for usage, with tantalum metal demand last year estimated at 1.835 million pounds, realising an equivalent primary tantalite shortage of 125,000 pounds, he added.
"But prior to that, surpluses, including DLA (US Defence Logistics Agency) sales, were huge," Henderson said.
This year, primary tantalite availability will fall sharply, as the affects of the financial crisis eat into production activity, with primary output falling to 2.4 million pounds and secondary availability slumping to 1.2 million, making overall ore supply of 3.63 million pounds.
"(However) demand has fallen off a cliff this year...it will be around 33 percent down from last year (at 1.235 million pounds tantalum) with capacitors down 40 percent."
Capacitors, typically used in mobile phones, will account for 43 percent of total consumption this year, and are the main end-use sector for metal products.
"There are sufficient stocks in the system and prices should remain weak through this year. Next year should be different, as there is nothing (production) coming on stream," Henderson added.
Supply next year may well be in line with this year's outturn, so if demand only recovers moderately there will be a severe drawdown on stocks.
"The inbalance will continue in 2011, as demand continues to recover," he said.
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