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Pastimes : The Philosophical Porch
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From: Rarebird5/29/2009 8:52:22 AM
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Transcendental Market Fragments:

Dow Industrials (Hourly):

There's no doubt about it. This market is running out of money to push it higher.

S&P 500 (Hourly June 2009 E-Mini):

The triangular-ish pattern will normally resolve to the upside in a thrust rally that exhausts the bullish trend. And, my time targets next week say that may happen. But, the market is trying to climb the hill on fumes right now. Perhaps the beginning of month influx of funds will be enough to push the market to reach its triangle target potential (927.5-929).

NYSE Composite:

Seasonals tell me that the end of May is one of the best times for the market to move higher. So far, there's no confirmation of that from money flow, or even a pickup in breadth. The broad market is trying to break out of its triangle to the upside, but it looks like salmon swimming upstream as they arrive at the goal weary and spent.

Oil:

Oil is still moving toward that middle ground price (66.9909 GeoMean) as it attempts to rise in the face of the worst deflationary depression since the Thirties. This is indeed "cruisin for a bruisin" and represents one of my favorite plays on the short side once the market begins to turn down on June 4.

Bottom Line:

If the market can break out to the upside during this most-favored time of the month, it is going to have a very hard time maintaining itself in this price territory. Even if it can't breakout to the upside, the market is in a precarious position. And, there are several challenges to the recovery, not the least of which is the halfway retracement back toward the highs in the oil market. That's re-imposing one of the taxes which sent the economy tumbling last year and could push it over the edge once again.
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