>>>I am puzzled by the optimisim expressed by the longs on this board. I guess I will
never understand it. All the great short stocks have had this kind of support all the way
down to $2 and below. If I was long or considering going long I wouldn't go near this
stock knowing the history of the company. It seems the longs are the last to get the
message. A short squeeze isn't going to happen because too many shares are out
and the danger would be holding the large number of shares necessary to put the
squeeze on when the price collapses, stupid things happen in the market but tring to
squeeze AVNT would be financial suicide. If you look at the chart it should be telling
you that the rallys are getting weaker and the lows lower. I would bet that the funds are
manipulating the daily trading to ease out of their positions.
Coz
<<<
Yes, I do agree that this is a risky stock. All tech stocks are
risky. But if you know as much about the EDA sector as some of the
investors on this board (e.g. engineers who use AVNT, CDN ... products daily and who comes in contact with officials of these
companies), you will know that the fundamentals for
this company is good. The way AVNT has position itself in the
EDA sector through mergers and acquisition has made them
a legitimate big time player. AVNT has experise on sectors that
neither CDN and Synopsis don't have, which alone will generate
enougn income for the company to continue to be the number 3 player
in the sector.
I see the only support for a short position is the possibility of
an negative outcome for the law suit. While this has a major impact
when the enjoined product figure prominantly into the companies
financies in the early part of this year. This is no longer the
case right now. Whereas the product in question accounts for
about 75% of the revenue earlier, now it only accounts for 25%.
I do admit a negative outcome on the litigation will have an effect.
But it won't destroy the company, the fundamentals is simply
too good for that. The backlog looks good; the major customer
wins looks good. But if by chance, the stock drop to the level
that you speak off (it won't, if AVNT drops to $2/share, we'd
have a tech stock sector wide crash). Buy!
For the funds to manipulate AVNT position in order to get out
is probably pretty hard. SEC has regulations in place to prevent
that. It would have to be a collusion(sp?) among fund companies
in order to cheat single investors our of their money. How likely
is that?
As of today, market dropped 7%, NASDAQ dropped over 100 pts, I
am getting killed on my INTC position. But I've lost only about 1-2% on AVNT. I am surprised on the confidence that investors have on
this stock. But the world wide market slide continues so I don't
know what is going to happen tommorrow. I just wish that I had
more cash so I can start bargin hunting.
- Chung
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