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Strategies & Market Trends : Lizard King's Trading Swamp
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To: VALUESPEC who wrote (2448)10/28/1997 8:18:00 AM
From: R. Bond  Read Replies (1) of 7396
 
>>I doubt Hong Kong will stop falling any day soon and that will make the fundamental outlook for stocks look even worse.<<

To maintain a balanced view, you may want to consider 1.) the loss of face that China will suffer concerning the takeover of HK if they don't step in and turn this around, 2.) the huge amount of foreign reserves available to China with which to defend the HK dollar, 3.) Jiang's U.S. appearance [possibly not a factor], and 4.) the fact that the mutual fund redemptions, although begun last week, have not gone parabolic. While there is a fear that the uneducated small investor will panic, he/she also may sit tight through a lot.

Also, IMHO if, as you say, HK will not stop falling soon then the SPECULATIVE outlook for going LONG does not look good.

I wish you the best.

Cheers,
Bond
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