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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (121419)	6/5/2009 11:49:50 AM
From: JimisJim	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) of 206114

Paul, it's almost 1/3 of their (RIG's) deepwater fleet, which is significant, but the real point is that the entire market for deepwater rigs softens if PBR replaces, say, 2/3 of the rigs they currently contract with their own... in which case, even deepwater fleets and operators become "surplus" capacity... if this were to happen, though, I suspect RIG would feel less pain than DO or others -- DO's fleet is getting long in the tooth and others just getting their feet into deepwater might find it tougher to get started as their newbuilds come to market with nothing to do... All still a pretty big IF since it is unclear just how soon PBR would actually be able to deliver on their stated desire to build/supply their own capital equipment for E&P -- in other words, won't be an issue for at least several years, if then... I was merely thinking/speculating out loud on one possible kink in the deepwater space. Jim

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