300K Producers are priced at an average M/C of $600MM per my work, then again that is just one metric of valuation. Need to also look at 2P RESERVES and M&I Resources, Ops Cash Flow, Debt, Political Risk and few other metrics to get the full picture and reasoning for discounts to the leaders/peers.
I'd guess that without a hated leader, reduced debt and hitting performance/production targets with positive cash flow, OGC could turn out to be a three bagger.
Then again you note some key items that need resolution for the company to find some "love".
Going forward we need to be thinking about consolidation in the PM space.
Last time we had a wave was 2006-2007 and at that time there was speculation about "The Five Amigos" and how each would be in play for consolidation. Those five were: AEM, AUY, GG, MDG and KGC(?).
Anyway AEM still stands but bought Cumberland Resources for its Meadow Bank play in Nunavut.
AUY went on a buying spree snapping up RNC, DEZ, VYO, and fellow Amigo MDG.
GG merged with Wheaton River, Bought up "extra" Placer Dome assets that Barrick didn't want, created Silver Wheaton scam, bought Virginia Gold Mines and merged with Glamis.
MDG was bought by AUY.
KGC snapped up Bema Gold.
Looks like this time around the Amigos might be:
Golden Star Resources,
Red Back Mining,
Northgate Minerals
Gammon Gold
New - New Gold
Oceana Gold, and
Minefinders.
These are the companies that if they want to move up to the next level (Major/Super Major) need to do some deals to get to that 1 -MM opy production level.
Ripe for the picking or needing to do deal of their own to get to the above level:
Alamos Gold
Aurizon Mines
Jaguar Mining, and possibly,
B2Gold.
The rest need to prove up new or developing production and a few that could hit the 100K opy level could be in play as plums for others with growth ambitions:
Allied Nevada Gold
Apollo Gold
Great Basin Gold
Avion Resources
Oh well just some thoughts....
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