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Politics : Rat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse

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To: Ron who wrote (9216)6/8/2009 9:28:08 AM
From: Wharf Rat  Read Replies (1) of 24225
 
Peak exports? This is from the guy who figured out peak oil exports...

westexas on June 8, 2009 - 8:07am
Re: U.S. Foresees a Thinner Cushion of Coal (linked uptop)

This WSJ article discusses David Rutledge's work and talks about "Peak Coal." And of course, I would anticipate that net coal exports, which the EIA calculates in terms of BTU's, will show a long term accelerating decline rate. Here are the combined net coal exports from the US and China versus Australia, from 1998 to 2007 (EIA, quadrillion BTU's):

China & US:
1998: 2.8
2007: 1.1
Down -1.7

Australia:
1998: 4.3
2007: 6.2
Up: +1.9

In other words, as of 2007 virtually all of the nine year increase in net coal exports from Australia went to offset the decline in net coal exports from China & the US. Although the US showed an uptick in 2007 (to a level well below its 1998 rate), China has probably virtually now ceased being a net coal exporter, on a BTU basis.
theoildrum.com
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