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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum

GLD 416.72

+1.2%

Dec 26 4:00 PM EST

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To: elmatador who wrote (51134)	6/9/2009 10:24:33 PM
From: THE ANT	Read Replies (1) of 218724

Dont get too exited ELmat,I fear a lot of pain to come. Mostly in US but it will be spread around.Remember much of what is happening in Brazil was luck. Brazil got locked out of the low interest rate party.If invited they would have danced on the table too.As for the US I think houses must and will return to 4x average family income and stocks to 10-12x PE.The FED has stopped this for the short term but they can not control the market.The lie was exposed and the once in 80 year bubble must deflate.Credit to GDP must go from 390% GDP to 150% as Elroy has stated.If the FED inflates too much the ratio will go to 120% credit to GDP which will further crush assets (their real value)Why do you think Brazil credit to GDP around 70%?Inflation and lack of trust in their economy.This is comming to a US city near you(me).In the mean time Brazil credit to GDP heading towards 120% and assets do have room to rise.Problem is that Brazilians will become like Americans:consumables will be cheap and houses will go up and they will spend 30 years in debt slavery to their mortgages like Americans do.Assuming Brazil credit/GDP of 120% is stable for the long run,like in the US,asset holders in Brazil still have a potential real doubling of their wealth relative to wages.Americans made the mistake of assuming credit/GDP ratio of 390% was sustainable and that asset value increase was real.US is shrinking to real size and Brazil growing.To get real growth Brazil has to make many more changes.I did my investing based on the relative positions of US and Brazil.Real estate in Brazil has doubled relative to wages in Brazil and will go up 4x and vs US 8-16X increase.After that it will be tough to know where to invest

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