Commercial Real Estate tic.............tic,,, Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Commercial Real Estate tic.............tic,,,

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To: Smiling Bob who wrote (220)	6/11/2009 9:33:34 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) of 442

<In 2005, it almost seemed like Mr. Market waited for my “towel toss” before turning its anger on the Beazer (BZH), Standard Pacific (SPF), Hovnanian (HOV) and Toll Brothers (TOL) of the world. The rest, as they say, is history. The parallels between the homebuilders then and CRE today are striking, and this time around, I’m going to make sure to be there when the trade finally hits.> Yes, it did seem to take FOREVER back then. I think the historical record is pretty clear that many of the stocks - especially the most heavily anticipated accidents like BZH - did no "forecasting" whatsoever. Top in starts was Jan 2006: 4.bp.blogspot.com Top in BZH was - Jan 2006. To be fair, some of the others had rolled over substantially by Jan 2006. EDIT - actually, the only ones that did any effective "forecasting" were HOV MDC and TOL. I must be missing a couple components of $HGX. finance.yahoo.com `BC

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