[not everybody saw carnage]
Here's one I just noticed... USWI didn't budge yesterday, and today is largest % gainer or 38% today. I don't know what they do, but it's remarkable to me that they didn't drop at ALL yesterday or the day before. It's a dollar stock.
I was extremely upset yesterday, and got very little sleep the last four days in a row. Yesterday, I talked to my dad, brother, and girlfriend (who's mom is in the market also). All three INSISTED this will blow over soon, and that I SHOULD NOT ditch everything at the open this morning. They're buying! I held tight, and am now glad.
Lot's of money to be made today, but I was on margin and came close to getting a call, but not quite. After hearing from some "investors" - as opposed to "traders" - I slept fine last night and feel calm now.
In hindsight, here are some indicators that this was coming that I knew about, but ignored: Clue: S&P futures locked limit down on Thursday at open. "Usually, it's a safe bet that if they're limit down, they will go down more" - from "Market Wizards" book. Clue - QNTM beat earnings, but could only muster a point or two, then slid again. "Market tone" (from William O'Neil's book) says that if a stock can't move up on good news, then the market is waek and you should get out. I don't hold QNTM, but I do hold APM and WDC. I couldl have ditched the sector. Clue- LGND too couldn't go up on good news. Bart mentioned he got out for that reason. I *thought* the up-move would be delayed, and staked my entire bet on that. (that is, I didn't even unwind part of the position, as a bet that the market was weak and it would drop.) Clue - TXN beats earnings, and slides and slides, and slides... What is wrong with this picture? Market tone.
Well, my severe lack of sleep probably means that quite a few neural net connections have been burned into my brain, and now there's a few more ways to look at the situation now that I've gown from 40% up since entering the market, to about 15% down, over the last few weeks.
But I'm ok - it's coming back.
Cheers!
Bruce Tiemann |
