FWIW, Spark Spread BiWeekly: Tracking Changes in Power Commodities
citigroupgeo.com
40 pages
First page Text:
In This Issue —
Alternating Currents: This Time, The Best Offense Is A Good
Defensive. Reserve Margin Update: PJM and ERCOT Reserve Margin Forecasts
Tick Down: Long Term Positive Power Supply/Demand Signal. Citi Power Gas &
Utilities Conference: Key Takeaways & Conclusions. Are Merchants Running Out
Of Gas? - Actually, Implied Gas Prices Are Right Where They Should Be. Pg 32.
Long Term Gas Up — In the past two weeks, longer-term gas prices increased
3.19%. The 2009 price is now at $4.36/MMbtu, the 2010 price is $6.26/MMbtu
and the 2011 price is $7.12/MMbtu. This compares to our previous report’s,
$4.20/MMbtu for 2009, $6.06/MMbtu for 2010, $6.95/MMbtu for 2011; see page
16 for further details.
Market Heat Rates Down — In the past two weeks, longer term market heat rates
decreased (2.48)%. Current flat market rates are 7,606 btu/KWh for 2009, 7,250
btu/KWh for 2010, and 6,971 btu/KWh for 2011. This compares to our previous
report’s 8,001 btu/KWh for 2009, 7,292 btu/KWh for 2010 and 7,108 btu/KWh for
2011; see page 30.
Sparks & Darks Mixed – For the last two weeks, forward 2010E and 2011E sparks
(CPN, and DYN) were up, CAPP spreads (MIR, and RRI) were down, and PRB
darks (DYN) were stable. |
