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Politics : View from the Center and Left

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To: JohnM who wrote (113574)	6/17/2009 3:34:55 PM
From: JohnM	Read Replies (1) of 541535

Interesting stuff, save for the Che Guevara bit. -------------------------------- Different This Time By Jon Taplin - June 17, 2009, 11:45AM As many commentators have pointed out, this is not the first time the Iranian students have protested the repressive regime. The Iranian government tolerated student-led uprisings in 1999 and 2003 for only a few days before unleashing fearsome crackdowns, sending Basij vigilantes onto campuses, where they flung a few students from the windows; bloodied as many heads as they could with bricks, chains or truncheons; and jailed scores. Three things seem different this time. * From 2005 to 2008, mobile phone subscriptions in Iran grew by more than 375 percent. By 2008, six of every 10 Iranians were mobile subscribers. Most of these phones have Internet access. This creates an alternative media channel that the government cannot control * In 2003 the middle and professional class would give the students tacit support by honking their horns near demonstrations. Now they are joining the demonstrations. This morning there was a mass resignation of the faculty at Tehran University to protest the beating of the students in their dorms last night. * In 2003 it was a "leaderless" rebellion and so after ten days it petered out. Now there is a leader and Moussavi's earliest political hero was Che Guevara. He is a street fighter and I don't think he's going to slink away without a major confrontation. Friday's traditional worship day will be critical. If more moderate clerics declare their support for a new election momentum could be continued. For the Supreme Leader, the way out is to say the recount brought Ahmadinejad below the 50% threshold that would require a run-off election under the constitution. tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com

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