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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated
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To: Ruffian who wrote (311086)6/22/2009 7:34:51 PM
From: Nadine Carroll6 Recommendations  Read Replies (3) of 793964
 
George Friedman has lost credibility with me. He started by buying the claims that Ahmedinejad had won the election even after the Interior Ministry published numbers that showed him winning 2 to 1 over Moussavi in every province. Now he's claiming that only Iranian yuppies are protesting. You can't get a million people in the streets with just the yuppies, and I believe the reports that say they had a million people, with huge crowds in Shiraz and Tabriz as well.

It's clear from Rafsanjani's defection that a lot of the clerics are on Moussavi's side. So there again we're not talking just yuppies.

The key will be if the Revolutionary Guard and the Basij stay loyal to Ahmedinejad (who I think is really calling the shots). Then he may be able to suppress the rebellion, for the suppression has been clever - prevent the big rallies, terrorize but keep bloodshed to the hundreds, not the thousands, concentrate on disappearing protesters in the night before they can rally, disrupt communications. But if they splinter, then the rebels can win.

As to whether the crisis has to do with liberalization or not, remember that Gorbachev just wanted to reform Communism. Rebellions take on their own momentum.
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