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Politics : A US National Health Care System?

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To: John Koligman who wrote (7190)	6/24/2009 12:54:14 PM
From: TimF	Read Replies (1) of 42652

Tim, if the Obomber raises cap gains rates as he says he will, and the market goes up due to an economic recovery, I'm sure you will say 'it could have been EVEN better' if he had left rates lower!! Yes, and it will be quite reasonable to do so. An economic recovery is normally expected after a recession, and normally will help the market out a lot. It would probably take more than a moderate sized capital gains tax increase to derail either of those things from happening, esp. the 1st. Its not like that result would be a controlled experiment. In a complex uncontrolled real world situation, post hoc doesn't imply propter hoc, esp. when there is a very good explanation for the observed result (normal economic recovery from a recession) that isn't the thing your evaluating. Even without such a good and obvious alternate explanation, the real world is complex, so "after" still doesn't typically imply "because of", particularly in a case like this when theory would suggest that the change your evaluating would produce the opposite result.

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