SK,
I agree with a number of your observations. I've been saying watch the 10 year ever since it touched up on 3. It is the key to everything and will continue to be so.
I also agree that another deflation scare (or depression if you prefer) will come into play before the real inflation wave starts. That is why I'm still short (profitably, btw) miners, the S&P (since June 10), but of course holding the precious, unprintable, forged in a supernova, 79 proton, accept no substitute, gold bullion. I like my positions as I'm protected by the bullion on the off chance we get a massive melt, but positioned to capture weakness as the game players push clownbucks from equities into treasuries. Seasonal weakness is also in favor of the short-side, as well as growing awareness that all the green shoots nonsense really is just bullshit.
Ben concerns me, for I wonder how far he will go to satisfy political pressures. Maybe he will be replaced, but I think that unlikely, as such an action will have a tremendous negative impact on markets.
I listened to Buffets comments today. I stand by my previous statements that Buffet has lost it. His brain is getting mushy and he is (incorrectly) fighting the last battle. He comment about no risk of deflation is rubbish. Of course Buffet, just like Bill Gross, is ALWAYS talking his book, even when he tells you he is not. Buffet's folksy approach is disarming, but he always has an agenda. I do not trust him.
GT
TH |
