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Politics : Politics of Energy
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From: TimF6/26/2009 8:27:11 PM
  Read Replies (2) of 86356
 
"The so-called “Hubbert curve” might have been forgotten altogether but for the fact that Hubbert’s 1956 prediction… that U.S. oil production would peak around 1970 was famously borne out. It should also be noted (but usually is not) that the predicted volume of oil to be produced at the peak was 37% too low, and that Hubbert’s predictions regarding coal and natural gas ran badly amiss. Extensive testing by Brandt (2007) and Nehring (2007a-c), who applied this technique to many petroleum basins around the world, indicates that the Hubbert curve is a very poor predictor of the time shape of petroleum extraction, that it finds peaks that do not exist, and misses peaks that do."

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"Hubbert predicted that U.S. oil production would peak at 3 billion barrels per year; actual production in
1970 was 4.1 billion barrels. Hubbert predicted that U.S. gas production would peak at 14 trillion cubic
feet per year in 1973; actual production was 20 trillion cubic feet in 2007. Hubbert predicted that global
coal production will peak in 2150 at about 6.4 billion metric tonnes; actual production reached that level in
2007 and is still growing rapidly. Actual production data are from the EIA."

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"Even if one does believe that oil production will peak in a given year, it is quite
another thing to assume that catastrophic effects will necessarily follow. The timing of
the peak and the nature of its aftermath are not pre-determined by geology; they are
endogenous manifestations of the inter-temporal allocation of resources as determined by
market forces. We demonstrate below that peaking may signal either scarcity or relative
surplus, rapidly rising prices or constant prices, the near termination of production or its
mere beginning. In other words, the phenomenon of peaking in a market-based economy
is an ambiguous indicator of anything of fundamental importance to the economy.
Therefore, efforts to date the peak should be of little interest to policymakers or the public debate."

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