More than a dead cat bounce---whether it follows thru the rest of the week or not?
Historically, as I have said, this is an up week---seasonal buying.
But I'm still pessimistic, particularly about Wednesday and Friday.
Asia and Europe chill out tonight.....NY Fed helps out tomorrow....specialist continue (yes, continue----that is what they are doing today) to 'mark up' stock (after all, in a panic their job is too absorb it and keep an orderly market----today they are getting their $$ back from yesterday)......
Then, failure. (My guess). If failure, then who is going to believe the next government rep they trot out to calm everyone down. Besides---the market does not go down because the public panics first....the professionals panic first. Then they blame the selloffs on the public. This is natural. The professionals should panic first---they are the ones that should know what's going on...but when 8 floor traders were asked last Thursday what they thought of Hong Kong's market noboby knew what the CNBC guy was talking about....these guys have more of a herd instinct than the public does.
The media points out that in 1987 too many people did not understand the marketplace, hence the panic. Yet the media also says that in 1987 the average family had 20% of net worth in stocks versus 33% today.
Even if you say the average Joe/Josephine today is brilliant compared to that loser in 1987, the threat of getting pounded on 1/3 of your net worth vs. 1/5 is emotionally unsettling no matter where Joe got his MBA.
I'm looking for another short entry point....whatever anyone else thinks, if there is a buyer there must be a seller, no? I want to be the seller. |
