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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum

GLD 383.12

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Nov 26 4:00 PM EST

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To: carranza2 who wrote (51960)	7/1/2009 8:07:15 PM
From: Joseph Silent	Read Replies (1) of 218049

An asset is a liability in disguise, it seems; and vice-versa. This is terribly stupid and sad. news.yahoo.com I continue to believe that we do not have the tools to understand risk. I'm not making wisecracks about the snakes in the banking industry or in politics (and maybe I should). The more important point is that "risk" is an incredibly complex thing to gauge, and the standard probabilistic tools try to do their best with limited information. Who has parameter-values for parameters we may not (yet) know? Despite this, there is usually a moron entrusted with the task of assessing risk involving someone oblivious to the peril, and often someone simply innocent. Common-sense, intuition, balance and old-fashioned values help where computational guarantees go up in smoke. In the case of Goldman and AIG, crooked backup plans worked when risk measures failed. By then the risk problem had changed.

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