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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (122132)	7/2/2009 8:22:36 AM
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Long-term, base demand is certainly higher. True. But short-term, inventories are near capacity and supply is increasing; producers are pumping more and OPEC discipline is relaxing. Economic forecasts are more pessimistic, and nobody's sure the global economy has found a bottom. When it does, rebound will be weak, not strong. Demand will have to grow a lot before tankers stop being used for high-cost storage, instead of simple delivery. Long-term crude will go up, but it looks like we're in short-term oversupply. The V-shaped rebound looks unlikely for 2009, and may be L-shaped in 2010. B&H could cause lost opportunities, especially since oils and crude are looking toppy. Holding may be OK, depends on the short-term correction. A few weeks of significant inventory draws and bingo! the correction is over. As always, could be wrong. Jim

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