AAPL never went lower than $13.
Apple traded as low as 12 3/8 on July 10, 1997.
This drop followed news of the dumping by Jobs of his shares and Motorola announcing they were moving internal systems over to NT, if I remember correctly.
Between July 2 and July 31, AAPL marched from 13 1/16 to 17 1/2. During this period, you posted quite a bit, however, you didn't recommend any buys. What's more, most of your posts had a disparaging attitude towards Apple.
Attitude that I still have today: Apple is one screwed up company, but there is a price low enough at which even a lemmon is a good deal.
IMHO, Apple the stock has so many loyal followers that it usually hovers 20-40% over a reasonable price --a perception that was matched by IBM and SUN takeunder buyout proposals. One can only assume these guys to have poured over the books in great detail, as its common done in friendly takeovers.
Somehow these bearish signals for Apple are always drowned in a sea of "loyal customers, great OS, yadda, yadda, yadda" (for those without access to back postings, SUN and IBM offers were substantially higher than the current price).
Back to my projections. I called bottom for Apple not because I see great things ahead for it, but because I see no more great hazards. Customers who could have defected have done so. If Apple mantains its current strategy, will slowly wither and die, which is the most likely scenario.
An arrogant visionary like Jobs brings the possibility of a genius stroke that might revive Apple as well as the possibility of the arrogant move --such as pulling the plug on clones-- that might be the coup de grace for this company.
People seem think it will be the former, as the Boston raise suggests; I tend to think that if he stays it will be the latter.
Jobs taking the helm at Apple is bearish in two ways (a) the arrogant distortion field is back (read Jeff Raskin (?) account on IEEE computer) and (b) it means none of the other big candidates wanted the job.
If a weak candidate is appointed to CEO, this too would be bearish, as it implies that not even Jobs wants to lead this company.
Only a strong candidate for CEO could be considered bullish. |
