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She is viewed disparagingly by many of the elites in her party, no matter how many conservative Republicans have flocked to her. She has grown increasingly unpopular in her own state and nationally; 43 percent of respondents questioned nationally in a CNN Poll in May viewed her unfavorably, compared with 21 percent shortly after Senator John McCain of Arizona chose her as his running mate last August.
And unlike Nixon’s, Ms. Palin’s credentials are a weak point. Nixon had been a vice president, a senator and a member of the House, while Ms. Palin is in her first term as governor of Alaska.
By stepping down before finishing her term, she cannot claim to be even a one-term governor. Without a positive record of accomplishment as governor, Ms. Palin may find she has little to run on as she seeks to achieve a critical political goal: expanding her appeal beyond the conservative voters who crowd her rallies and write checks on her behalf.
“I think a lot of it has been unfair, but, fair or unfair, there has been a question in the eyes of most Republican primary voters about whether she has demonstrated an ability to govern,” said Sara Taylor, who was the White House political director under President George W. Bush. “So the best opportunity you have to demonstrate you can lead is to do it, and you can’t lead if you don’t have a platform.”
“So I do think that this is a mistake if she wants to run for office,” Ms. Taylor said. “It’s a brilliant move if she wants to go make money, write books and give speeches, and I don’t think anybody could fault her for that.”
If one of Ms. Palin’s goals was to erase the perception of her as flighty, a perception encouraged by some McCain lieutenants in the rough aftermath of the failed campaign, it certainly could not have been helped to have staged an out-of-the-blue announcement that shocked even her closest aides and whose theatrics probably tempted Tina Fey and the “Saturday Night Live” production crew to abandon their vacations and head to the studio.
“I can’t imagine that anyone saw this coming,” said former State Senator Kim Elton, a Democrat who is now director of Alaska affairs for the interior secretary. “I think the consensus in Alaska was she had her eye on the prize and that the way to get that was being governor.”
And if another of Ms. Palin’s goals was, as she suggested, to put an end to the rush of what she described as hectoring investigations from the news media, the sheer frenzy of the reaction to her decision was a reminder of how difficult that might prove to be. Even her lawyer put out a statement late Saturday denying what he called “false and defamatory allegations” that her resignation stemmed from a criminal investigation.
It is unclear precisely what Ms. Palin intends to do. The assumption, given her remarks and record over the past year, is that she sees an opportunity now, with the ranks of potential Republican presidential candidates so depleted.
In fact, assuming she has any interest in staying in national politics, she might be more interested in filling another vacuum and positioning herself as the de facto leader of the social conservative movement. Even if she did not run herself, she could be extremely influential as Republicans move to choose a presidential candidate in 2012, given the power conservatives have in the party nomination process.
And there is an argument, advanced by some of her supporters, that this might be a risk worth taking, given the problems she has had as a national figure.
Even if serving as governor might have allowed her to build up a record to run for higher office, as Ms. Taylor argued, her departure removes what has proved to be a bruising political environment at home. Not incidentally, it frees her to move closer to where the action is in the 2012 presidential race.
“And she has a following that will jump in front of a plane for her,” said John Coale, a lawyer who helped create her political action committee. “If she takes this time to develop that base, she could be a real force in the Republican Party, and maybe run.”
Jonah Goldberg, an editor at large at the conservative National Review Online, posted an open letter to Ms. Palin even before she announced her decision, urging her to use the time before the 2012 race to fill in what he said were deficiencies in her knowledge that had hampered her as a vice-presidential candidate.
“So here’s my advice,” Mr. Goldberg wrote. “Stay home and do your job and your homework. You’ll still be a national figure come the primaries. But if you can’t surprise your detractors with your grasp of policy when you re-emerge on the national stage, you won’t win the nomination. More important, you won’t deserve to.”
Yet the dominant reaction of Republicans has been befuddlement. Her move may play well with her strongest supporters, but her political instincts and stability were once again being questioned in other circles of the party, which had already been wary of her after the election last year. That is hardly a development Ms. Palin could welcome as her party looks for a candidate who can endure what could be a very tough race in 2012.
“Somebody has to explain to Republicans how this woman is going to expand her support base,” said John Weaver, a former adviser to Mr. McCain.
“Yes, she is the darling of a certain element of our party,” Mr. Weaver said. “But it remains to be seen — in fact, it remains rather doubtful she can grow beyond that.”
Serge F. Kovaleski and Jim Rutenberg contributed reporting. |
