An interesting "last post" from Desert_Dweller a past prolific poster on ihub.
"Posted by: Desert dweller Date: Saturday, January 17, 2009 4:41:13 PM
In reply to: olddog967 who wrote msg# 246363 Post # of 62513
olddog, before I begin let me just say thank you for everything you have done for this board to keep us informed. Now on to what Ronny posted and his numbers only work if you play the game of let's pretend that Sammy didn't pay anything for 2g and all past 3g sales have been forgiven. How many phones did they sell in 2008 and prior when the ASP was higher than it will be going forward? Hundred million phones? Two hundred million phones? All royalties on these phones forgiven? The arbitration award for 2g all forgiven? All $400 million is only future revenue? Pardon my skepticism, but this is what got wall street in trouble, using accounting gimmicks to pretend your financial statements say one thing when reality says a completely different thing.
My projections and my dream for this stock died on Wednesday and I will be out of the stock some time during this year. I do believe it can and will mover higher from here but I can't see any way we go over $35-40 based on the piss poor result with Sammy.
You can pretend the $100 million per year going forward is correct but I would bet if you poll the CPA's on this board and ask if they would feel comfortable signing off on those numbers I bet most on this board wouldn't like what they see. Like I said, I think the stock will move higher from here but is it worth $50, $75 or higher? Not a chance IMO. The agreement did a good thing in removing the doubt surrounding Sammy and the possibility that they could have walked away but it reduced dramatically their future ability to sign new deals anywhere near the rate they are currently receiving from NEC, Sharp, LG and others.
No matter what the contract says, everyone who licenses in the future will say that about $200 million was for 2g and past 3g sales, so even though you are playing games and saying it is all for future sales, for us to sign we want a similar deal or better. Good luck all and like we have all been told since we have been little, "If it seems too good to be true, it probably is." I never believed that would prove true with IDCC but for me it just did. With IDCC, until this Sammy agreement, all the numbers pointed to a much, much higher stock in the future and a much higher settlement with Sammy. I wasn't spending so much time following IDCC thinking we would see $30's as a high. IMO Nokia will get a better deal than Sammy since they already paid a quarter billion for 2g.
Message In Reply To:
Jim: Did you read Ron's disclaimer at the end?
"Therefore, if IDCC can license the remaining 50% of the 3G market at $1.50 per handset or above, then they can maintain the $1.50 or better average. However, I seriously doubt that Nokia, Motorola, and Sony Ericy will be licensed at anywhere near the $1.50 average. Thus, licensing these Tier 1 company's will probably cause a significant drop in the average 3G unit price from the $1.52 or $1.60 estimated current range, even moreso than Samsung's affect of dropping the $2 average down to the $1.52 to $1.60 range." |
