Mish, the national land prices in Japan are a crock of sheit. Just like we're seeing in the U.S., real estate is all about location, location. If you think that real-estate, rents or land is down 80% in the best parts of Tokyo or Osaka, think again. In fact in the 2003-2007 period they were making new highs.
Prices in major cities are dictated by global fundamentals and prices are uniform. No way prices will rise in Delhi, Beijing, Moscow, Sao Paulo and not in New York, London, San Fran.
I could give a rat's ass that real-estate is down 75% in some ghetto area of inland California. In the best areas of New York, San Fran, Los Angeles proper, Boston, London, Paris, Toronto etc. housing is down but not crashing Stockton, California style.
The fact of the matter is that the most globalized cities in America with strong links to Asia and LatAm have strong fundamentals which will power them when this cycle is over (2010).
Real Estate cycles happen every 20 years. This one has lasted 3 years and bears ought not to be pressing their luck by making ludicrous comparisons to Japan.
Broad sweeping comparisons at this point of the cycle are a disservice to anybody looking for a house. Affordability in most of the country is at record levels. The government is literally giving money away to buy a house at a fixed rate with a 5 in front of it. And hey, if you can't pay, they'll rent you back your house.
You'd have to be a fool not to bite here. It's name your price and buyers can "make the market". |
