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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis
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To: Real Man who wrote (21383)7/16/2009 6:02:00 PM
From: Archie Meeties  Read Replies (2) of 71441
 
Although nothing could please US industry more than a much weaker dollar, I doubt it's in the cards.

Best guess: We stay within a +/-5% range on the DXY and at most get a 10% drop yoy by this time 2010. There is just way too much at stake for Asia not to continue to subsidize their exports through dollar buying. Recent data is that overseas the dollar reserves are increasing. If this isn't a time for folks to panic out of it, then when?

Further more, our ability to pay the debt is not seriously in question. The ratio of interest expense to gdp is about 1/2 of what it was in the 1980's. Lastly, the trade defecit is narrowing and will likely continue to do so as contracting credit limits the US consumer and energy prices decline.
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