Actually, the predictive aspect of climate change is being modeled at LLNL- one of our national labs. I was lucky enough to hear this guy speak last week:
en.wikipedia.org
He was discussing the super models they are making when they combine all models in to one model using the supercomputers at LLNL. Interestingly he said their long term predictions were getting pretty good- better than short term. They are doing predictions. Unfortunately some of the predictions are turning out to be too conservative- and the data they are getting is worse than the models predicted (all the models.)
I asked him if there was any hope- because quite frankly we've lost control of the carbon in the atmosphere- that's crystal clear. The ocean simply can't take up any more than it already is in the thermohaline current, and the only thing left is the atmosphere- hence the Keeling curve.
And he said, the wild card is clouds. It's the one thing not very well understood. The climate will definitely change- that's certain now, the question is how. Clouds will be the wild card, most scientists in the big labs think. I was not nearly as worried about climate change until I heard some of these guys speak. These are brilliant guys, and I'm sorry to say, they are not very sanguine on our chances. I hope all these guys are wrong- but the days of the ice age folks (who didn't have access to the supercomputers these guys are using) are over. This is not your father's climate change science.
There are not "tons" of scientists on both sides of the issue. There are a huge number of guys on the climate change side, modeling various aspects of the problem. There are a few guys on the other side- usually guys with little on their resume, and a small amount of funding from businesses- if they are lucky. Most big companies are now funding climate change programs, and even they have cut off the deniers. Climate change is not an "invented" problem. There is definitely a change in our atmosphere at both low and high levels. It is significant, and it's easy to track the impact of fossil fuel carbon. Did you know that? Here's the deal- CAMS- the center for accelerator mass spectrometry, has a new protocol- just developed, and they can actually trace the carbon footprint "load" in the air from fossil fuels- here's why. Fossil fuels are "dead" carbon 14-wise- they don't register; they are too old. So if you test the air, and the c14 is lower than "normal"- you know the depression is because of dead carbon from fossil fuels. Neat trick, isn't it? Brand new science. So it is possible now to show very clearly what the anthropogenic carbon load in a given area is from- when you are looking at fossil fuels (obviously it wouldn't work for something like wood). And it is fairly alarming.
Pray the clouds save us a little. Everything else the scientists have looked at are in a positive feedback loop. Not good. |
