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Pastimes : Starbucks SBUX

SBUX 83.97

-0.3%

Jan 2 9:30 AM EST

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To: GloriaE who wrote (96)	9/4/1996 8:08:00 PM
From: Sturgeon	of 148

Gloria, Here is a checklist that I have put together that I will use to determine when to go short. After each point I've added my opinion on what the current situation is. A "yes" is favourable to shorting. financing 1) cash and inventories are run down -- no 2) no convertibles are in range for conversion-- no 3) stock market is weak -- no 4) fund flows are down -- neutral 5) stock has lost momentum -- no 6) interest rates are higher -- neutral 7) they issue a convertible at 6% or more -- no earnings 8) coffee futures have risen above $1.50 -- no 9) same store sales are weak -- no 10) Store Operating Expenses are already low -- neutral 11) no one-time gains possible -- yes 12) cash flow is declining -- no Smart money 13) insiders are selling -- yes As you can see, the no's outweigh the yes's by a substantial margin. That is why I think the time to short has not yet arrived. In the future, I will call this checklist "Rod's SBUX Short Indicator" just to annoy Henry. Right now the indicator reads 3.5 out of 13. I would appreciate your feedback on these points and would like to know if you have any other suggestions I should add. And if I haven't already said so, welcome to the dark side! Rod

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