I will make a couple of comments about HGSI. Just two short opinions. I will point out that people talking $1B top potential sales have it too low. There is a little cognitive lag going on here regarding lupus and the potential of this drug. Because most analyst types were negative about the drug/company, it is influencing their current views. Hard for any of us to make a big switch without bias. It doesn't help that HGSI mgt is the way they are, mouthy, etc. Like having trouble with their website or not having a replay of this conference call, a very important call to investors, till 24 hours later. HGSI has sucky managementitis. But looks like they obviously did somethings right, like in the design of these trials, and also in the mgt of the data set. I expect the 2nd phase 3 to be positive also. People should know that the first phase 3 was in non-western EU, USA, etc. type countries, while the second phase 3 is in western EU, USA, etc. The deal with GSK is a big deal. 50/50 across the world.
We shouldn't forget how difficult it was to hit on a large lupus trial. Just because HGSI figured it out with their drug, doesn't mean that all other candidates are now going to magically figure it out too. First people say no one can do it, it is a blackhole of drug development, now people are being optimistic about a bunch of other drugs. There are at least a few big reasons why it was so hard to target lupus, only one of which is the exact design of the trial. And then your drug must "work" and not too hard and not too soft. |
