SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Pastimes : Can the average (?) moron beat the averages?

 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Steve Felix who wrote (1652)7/22/2009 10:32:46 PM
From: Steve Felix   of 1660
 
I find it truly amazing that there is no interest here. This will be my last post on this subject. If you are interested I will send you the hits by private message or e-mail. I'm no guru. I stumbled on this, and in an up market it knocks the markets socks off. On the other hand, I discovered it in a down market.

List linked to 7/6 hits. Of nine hits, to their highs, four have tripled the % of the Naz Composite, three more than doubled it, two have beaten it, and one has trailed.

Symbol, close 7/6, high since, % to high.

ACTU ,,, 4.57999992 ,,, 4.93 ,,, 7.6%
ARUN ,,, 7.94000006 ,,, 9.11 ,,, 14.7%
AMPL ,,, 2.04999995 ,,, 2.65 ,,, 29.2%
CVI ,,, 6.82999992 ,,, 8.48 ,,, 24.1%
FEED ,,, 5.40999985 ,,, 6.05 ,,, 11.8%
FREE ,,, 2.00999999 ,,, 2.54 ,,, 26.3%
MIPS ,,, 2.74000001 ,,, 3.49 ,,, 27.3%
RTIX ,,, 3.80999994 ,,, 4.34 ,,, 13.9%
THC ,,, 2.63000011 ,,, 3.44 ,,, 30.7%
VITA ,,, 4.69000006 ,,, 5.82 ,,, 24.0%

Average gain to high = 20.9%
Nazdaq Composite 1787,,, 1934 ,,, 8.2%

I won't have the time to really get into these until at least the fall, but something jumped out at me right away. Why buy into a stock that is going down? Sure, the ones that go up the next day, you would have to pay up for, but the ones that go down, you pay less for.

Symbol, close on first up day, high since, % gain to high, days down before up day. ND = up the next day.

ACTU ,,, 4.39 ,,, 4.93 ,,, 12.3%,,, 3
AMPL ,,, 2.02 ,,, 2.65 ,,, 31.1%,,, 4
ARUN ,,, 7.68 ,,, 9.11 ,,, 18.6%,,, 4
CVI ,,, 6.69 ,,, 8.48 ,,, 26.7%,,, 1
FEED ,,, 4.80 ,,, 6.05 ,,, 11.8%,,, 3
FREE ,,, 1.95 ,,, 2.54 ,,, 30.2%,,, 2
MIPS ,,, 2.88 ,,, 3.49 ,,, 21.1%,,, ND
RTIX ,,, 3.82 ,,, 4.34 ,,, 13.6%,,, 3
THC ,,, 2.86 ,,, 3.44 ,,, 20.2% ND
VITA ,,, 4.91 ,,, 5.82 ,,, 18.5% ND
Nazdaq Composite,,, 1747 ,,, 1934 ,,, 10.7% 1

Average return to high of stocks up the day after hit = 19.9%
Average gain of stocks not up the next day, bought at the closing price of first up day = 20.6%

What if all stocks had been bought at the hit price and held until now?

Average return 16.08%, more than double the Naz Comp from then until now.

Symbol, close on hit day, close today, % gain.

ACTU ,,, 4.57999992 ,,, 4.84 ,,, 5.6%
AMPL ,,, 2.04999995 ,,, 2.56 ,,, 24.8%
ARUN ,,, 7.94000006 ,,, 9.11 ,,, 14.7%
CVI ,,, 6.82999992 ,,, 8.34 ,,, 22.1%
FEED ,,, 5.40999985 ,,, 5.62 ,,, 3.8%
FREE ,,, 2.00999999 ,,, 2.18 ,,, 8.45%
MIPS ,,, 2.74000001 ,,, 3.49 ,,, 27.3%
RTIX ,,, 3.80999994 ,,, 4.22 ,,, 10.7%
THC ,,, 2.63000011 ,,, 3.31 ,,, 25.8%
VITA ,,, 4.69000006 ,,, 5.45 ,,, 16.2%
Nazdaq Composite,,, 1787,,, 1926 ,,, 7.7%

Happy trading
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext