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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 316.33

+1.3%

Dec 10 4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (44845)	7/27/2009 12:00:36 AM
From: The Ox	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) of 95565

I continue to hang my hat in the camp that suggests too many people are being left behind with this rise in the markets. If the equity markets are to breakdown to new lows from here, it lets everyone on the sidelines have one more chance to get back in at better prices. We'll have plenty of tough times ahead and corrections from going too far, too fast. That being said, I think looking for another massive move down at this point in time could be a bit of a fools game. The final low seen in the last Dow chart in your post was early 1942. Things looked pretty bleak at that moment in time. Japan had expanded into most of the Pacific and was well on their way into SE Asia. Germany was steamrolling Europe. No way we can look at today's global environment and make a correlation to that period in our past. When looking at the last 2 charts in your post, I would caution anyone from trying to draw a direct comparison. The I-label in the Dow chart was reached in 1938, right before the start of WWII. While the worldwide geopolitical environment isn't that pretty in this day and age, I think that its unlikely that we'll have war on such a massive, global scale during the next 4 or 5 years. I shutter to think about the possibilities if I am wrong about this issue!!! There are plenty of reasons to be cautious and there will be excellent chances for the market to "take profits" going forward. But you can count me in the camp that says you may have to wait a very, very long time before we see new lows in the indexes. I think chances are far greater that we have seen the lows from this latest bear market period. If (and when) I get ready to move my hat into the "new lows are on their way" camp, I'll be sure to "alert the media"! <vbg>. jmo TO

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