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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent?
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To: philv who wrote (29460)7/29/2009 2:18:51 PM
From: sea_urchin  Read Replies (1) of 81507
 
Phil > who knows what may yet come?

My own observations have taught me that a sustained movement is unlikely unless the volatility is right down. The reason is the cost of call (or put) options depends on market volatility.

25yearsofprogramming.com

>>The Black-Scholes formula requires as one of its inputs the stock's volatility, the "annualized standard deviation of the underlying stock price's daily logarithmic returns".<<

The index of volatility I use is the distance between the Bollinger Bands which is usually twice the standard deviation of the price distribution. Plus/minus one standard deviation gives a statistical probability that 95% of the distribution will be contained, plus/minus two standard deviations gives a probability that 99% of the distribution will be contained.

Re Oil/LPG, I imagine the present price range would suit most consumers and producers. I also believe the wild price fluctuations are the result of market speculators and not supply/demand imbalances.
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